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BRIEF RESEARCH ARTICLE
Year : 2022  |  Volume : 66  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 64-66  

COVID-19 pandemic: Trend analysis with respect to District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, Northern India


1 Assistant Professor, Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India
2 Senior Resident, Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India
3 Associate Professor, Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India
4 Head, Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India
5 Deputy CMO, District Anantnag, Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India
6 Epidemiologist, Department of Health and Medical Education Unit, Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, India

Date of Submission25-Mar-2021
Date of Decision15-Dec-2021
Date of Acceptance13-Jan-2022
Date of Web Publication5-Apr-2022

Correspondence Address:
Mohsina Mukhtar
Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Purana Bhawan, Mattan, Anantnag - 192 125, Jammu and Kashmir
India
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/ijph.IJPH_255_21

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   Abstract 


With 1st case being reported in Wuhan city of China in December 2019, COVID-19 infection cases made their way to every corner of the world. Then, on January 07, 2020, laboratory results led to pneumonia being named as COVID-19. Scant data is available from Northern India, thus to reveal the trend of COVID-19 infection since last year of COVID-19 pandemic onset, this study took shape. The unit of analysis of our study was District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir. Till February 05, 2021, a total of 4625 cases of COVID-19 virus were reported in District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir. Negative history of close contact with COVID-19 patient (66.1%) constituted the most common exposure, majority (84.4%) were asymptomatic and comorbidities were present in 68 (1.5%). COVID-19 infection was more prevalent among younger age group, with higher male predominance, with comorbid being at higher risk, hence most stringent measures must be adopted.

Keywords: Anantnag, COVID-19, Jammu and Kashmir, WHO


How to cite this article:
Rasool M, Mukhtar M, Munshi IH, Masoodi MA, Zagoo MY, Ahmad I. COVID-19 pandemic: Trend analysis with respect to District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, Northern India. Indian J Public Health 2022;66:64-6

How to cite this URL:
Rasool M, Mukhtar M, Munshi IH, Masoodi MA, Zagoo MY, Ahmad I. COVID-19 pandemic: Trend analysis with respect to District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, Northern India. Indian J Public Health [serial online] 2022 [cited 2022 May 18];66:64-6. Available from: https://www.ijph.in/text.asp?2022/66/1/64/342600



With the first case being reported by officials in Wuhan city of China in December 2019, the pandemic was declared as a public health emergency by the WHO on January 30, 2020.[1] Then, on January 07, 2020, laboratory results showed the pathogen to be a new type of coronavirus; thus led to pneumonia being named as COVID-19 by the WHO.[2] As of February 1, 2021, there have been 102,399,513 confirmed cases with 2,217,005 deaths confirmed by this infection worldwide.[3] India had its first case reported on January 30, 2020 from Kerala,[4] and on March 16, 2020, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Jammu and Kashmir. On April 14, 2020, District Anantnag reported its first case of coronavirus infection.[5]

Using data from official sources for rapid analysis which has been often referred as to infodemiology, we adopted the same method. We estimated and assessed the temporal and spatial distribution of the COVID-19 cases in our part of the Indian region to provide information about dynamic changes and trends in the reported cases of this pandemic in our part of country which will help us in future for better preparedness, prevention and management as scant data is available from Northern region of India, this study took shape.

The unit of analysis of our study was District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir with a population of 10.8 lacs and 07 Health Blocks.

A case was defined as the one who had tested positive for COVID-19 infection on Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction/rapid antigen test.

The data was collected from Case Investigation Formats of COVID-19-positive cases utilized by IDSP, Department of Health Chief Medical Officer's office, District Anantnag.

The collected data was entered in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Frequencies were obtained using descriptive statistics using appropriate statistical tool for analysis.

The study was approved by the Institutional Ethical Committee under the protocol ID IEC/GMCA/21/010. Furthermore, permission was obtained from the Chief Medical Officer, District Anantnag for using the data in this study.

Till February 05, 2021, a total of 4625 cases of COVID-19 virus were reported in District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir. The overall mean age was 38.6 ± 10.4 years, majority were males (n = 3039, 65.7%), and 52.0% (n = 2404) belonged to rural areas. Majority of the cases (n = 2686; 58.1%) belonged to low-risk occupation group. The blockwise distribution of the COVID-19 cases is shown in [Table 1].
Table 1: Baseline characteristics of the coronavirus disease-2019 positive cases, District Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, Northern India, April 2020-January 2021 (n=4625)

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Negative history of close contact with COVID-19 patient (n = 3055; 66.1%) constituted the most common exposure characteristic, followed by positive history of close contact COVID-19 patient (n = 1296; 28.0%) and travel history (n = 274; 5.9%).

Majority (n = 3906; 84.4%) of the cases were asymptomatic and remained so throughout the course of the disease. Comorbidities were present only in 68 (1.5%) COVID-19 cases, of which hypertension (n = 26, 38.2%) was the most commonly observed comorbidity followed by Type 2 diabetes mellitus (n = 16, 23.5%). Out of 1586 (34.3%) females who were COVID-19 positive, 233 (14.7%) were pregnant. Majority (n = 3002; 64.9%) of the COVID-19 cases were placed under home isolation. Recovery rate is quiet high as 98.1% (n = 4539) COVID-19 cases had recovered till date.

Regarding the deaths among COVID-19 cases, a total of 86 (1.8%) lives had been lost till February 05, 2021. Out of these deaths, 51 (59.3%) were males and 33 (38.4%) belonged to age group 61–70 years, with overall percentage highest in 60 years age group. Among the death cases, underlying comorbidities were present in half of the cases (n = 40; 46.5%) and of which 26 were males and 14 were females. The average COVID-19 positivity rate of District Anantnag is 2.9% with around 8-9% during the month of April and August and reduced to 1-2% during the month of May, June, and October; with reaching it's lowest during the month of November. The case fatality ratio (CFR) of district Anantnag was highest during the month of July 2020 (4.20), with lowest CFR observed during the month of October 2020 (0.83) with a sudden increase again in January 2021.

The above graph [Figure 1] shows month-wise trend of COVID-19 positive cases, respectively. It is evident that there is no seasonal variation among the COVID-19 cases reported. In district Anantnag, COVID-19 cases started to appear in spring (April 2020), with a gradual increase of reported cases in summer and showing a decline in autumn.
Figure 1: Trend of COVID-19 cases month-wise, district Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, Northern India, April 2020 to January 2021 (n = 4625).

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As of February 05, 2021, the mean age distribution of COVID-19 infections in district Anantnag is more prevalent in younger age groups (21–40 years) and shows a male predominance which is in tune with the profile of COVID-19 cases reported by studies conducted in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, India.[6] The lower incidence of COVID-19 infection among older age group in district Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir is in contrast with the findings reported in the United States of America and other western countries, owing to different demographic characteristics of Asian populations.[7] Up to July, 2020, the main source of spread seemed to be travel history or contact with positive COVID-19 cases but afterward no contact or travel history predominated clearly depicts community transmission from August onward. Since August 2020, a shift was noted from those who had a positive history of contact with a case or suspect of COVID-19 towards those who had no such history. Similar trend was reported by several studies conducted within India and outside India.[8] The most common comorbidities found in the patients with COVID-19 infection are hypertension and diabetes mellitus, which is similar to the findings of previous studies.[8] The proportion of pregnant women among the female COVID-19 cases was relatively small (14.7%), similar to the estimated proportion of pregnant women among other studies.[9] The overall CFR due to COVID-19 virus infection among our cases is 2.0% which is low as compared to India, as well as to other countries.[9],[10] Recovery rate was less frequent among older age group (>60 years) as compared to younger age group (21–40 years); and also no deaths were reported at ages 0–17 years.[6] Regarding the COVID-19 deaths among our cases, deaths were frequent among older age group (>50 years) and higher among males than females. Similar reports were found in previous studies that showed nearly half of expired patients with COVID-19 infection are 60 years or above in age and that men are more likely to be infected than women.[6],[8],[10] Among our expired COVID-19 cases, comorbidities were higher among males than females which are in tune with findings reported by another study.[8]

COVID-19 infection was more prevalent among younger age group, with higher male predominance, with comorbid being at higher risk, hence most stringent measures must be adopted such as compulsory mask use in public places, frequent hand washing/sanitization, social distancing, etc.

Acknowledgment

We are highly indebted to Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad Shah, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health and Medical Education Unit and District administration of District Anantnag for facilitating and providing constant support needed for the study.

Financial support and sponsorship

Nil.

Conflicts of interest

There are no conflicts of interest.



 
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Andrews MA, Areekal B, Rajesh KR, Krishnan J, Suryakala R, Krishnan B, et al. First confirmed case of COVID-19 infection in India: A case report. Indian J Med Res 2020;151:490-2.  Back to cited text no. 4
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U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19); 2020. Available from: www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm. [Last accessed on 2021 Jan 19].  Back to cited text no. 7
    
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Andrade LA, Gomes DS, Lima SV, Duque AM, Melo MS, Góes MA, et al. COVID-19 mortality in an area of northeast Brazil: Epidemiological characteristics and prospective spatiotemporal modelling. Epidemiol Infect 2020;148:e288.  Back to cited text no. 8
    
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Docherty AB, Harrison EM, Green CA, Hardwick HE, Pius R, Norman L, et al. Features of 20 133 UK patients in hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC who clinical characterisation protocol: Prospective observational cohort study. BMJ 2020;369:m1985.  Back to cited text no. 9
    
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